Thursday, June 16, 2011

Is Terrelle Pryor's Value Too Low?

I read an article on Sports Illustrated web-site that ripped Terrelle Pryor's QB abilities. Don Banks, a good writer, valued Pryor as only being worth a 5th or 6th round draft pick in the upcoming supplemental draft. I might agree with Don if Terrelle had come out for the regular NFL draft. But I think that actually, some team will bid a low 3rd round or high 4th round pick for Pryor, due to some exceptional circumstances Don may have not considered.

Leverage in dealing for Kevin Kolb. Teams like the Cardinals are desperate for a quarterback, and are forced to wait until the lockout ends to try to deal for a new quarterback. If such a team can acquire Pryor, it creates the illusion of more depth at the quarterback spot. Such a team can then claim that they can get by with a veteran retread for a few years while waiting for Pryor to develop. This forces the Eagles to lower their price. If acquiring Pryor for a 4 means that a team need only offer the Eagles two second-round draft picks instead of including a first-round draft pick, it's well-worth it.

Added buzz for ticket sales for a dull team. After the lockout ends, teams may struggle selling tickets, especially if that team already had a bad reputation. The Bills, for example, had a smart draft where they avoided taking a QB and decided to stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick for now. However, Bills fans are very impatient with the team's losing style and lack of playmakers. Or, take Cincinnati, a team that had to blackout games last year. Think that such a team won't be tempted to take Pryor to boost ticket sales and lure in a few Buckeyes fans? It will also help create more competition for Dalton at a relatively cheap price.

Added playmaker for unconventional offenses. If the Dolphins were willing to spend a second-round pick on Pat White, why not spend a fourth-round pick on Pryor? For run-first teams with immobile, strong-armed QB's, why not bring in Pryor as an additional weapon? Yes, it's not exactly clear where Pryor best fits, whether QB or wide-out. But it's clear he has above-average skills. And that's enough to intrigue talent evaluators, who foam at the mouth at transition talents like Tebow, Matt Jones, Pat White, and others. Somewhere, there's a GM or coach who thinks they can use Pryor as a secret weapon, and they'll see him as a bargain.

The deceitfulness of scarcity. Imagine you are an NFL GM. The draft is over. You can't sign any undrafted free agents. You have next to nothing to do. There is literally ONE player in all of football that you can acquire. Don't you think some bored GM is talking himself into Terrelle Pryor as we speak, cackling as he thinks he will get an edge on the rest of the league? We all become bargain hunters when we think we got the last item on the shelf. Expect that instinct to persuade at least one GM to pay big for Terrelle Pryor.

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