The Problem with Predictionitis (Circular Rant)

A few weeks ago, I took a shot at predicting the value of Terrelle Pryor in the NFL supplemental draft. I put my guess as to what round he would end up with, threw out a lot of half-baked ideas to support it, and plopped my view on the Internet. It was an easy column to write, and it took me about 45 minutes. I wrote it to contest Don Banks' column on Terrelle Pryor, which I'm sure took much longer than mine to write and cited scouts and professionals. Turns out I was right. So what? Does anyone really care?

I would hazard a guess that about 10% of the sports columns written are prediction columns. Fantasy sports "gurus" try to convince us that so-and-so is underrated, overrated, or unrated. Experts project into the future by telling us the exact game score and record of each team, sounding confident as they use statistics and gut feelings. Visionairies tell us about the future of this game or that. It all sounds so good and it's fun to argue about such things. It's also a total waste of time.

The beauty of sports is that it happens live and unscripted (mostly, Tim Donaghy moments excepted). In a DVR and spoiler-full age, sports is one of the few unscripted enjoyments we have. There are no leaks ahead of time, no columnists who truly have the inside scoop. And yet, we waste so much time trying to see into the future that we ruin sports of its present. The fun is in the moment. I find myself more and more turning to Twitter during games to read the fan's reaction as the game happens. The roar of the crowd can't be easily transcribed into a recap column, much less properly anticipated by a confident scribe as he types busily away at his local Starbucks or cubicle. We spend so much time analyzing and prescribing that we can't just let the balls fall where they may.

I have been reading some older sportswriting books, and I'm struck by how often sports columnists admit that most of their fellow writers had lost any sense of joy in the game itself. The game is just something they endure so they can rush back and write their columns about what happened. Have we really come to this, that predicting the game is more fun than the game itself? When was the last time you went back at the end of the year to check how well your favorite columnist predicted games during the preseason? It's an exercise in irrelevance and meaningless chestpounding, without a single useful trait and...

HEY DID I MENTION THAT I WAS RIGHT AND ESTEEMED WRITER DON BANKS FOR SPORTS ILLUSTRATED WAS WRONG?! WHERE'S YOUR SCOUTS WITH THEIR ANONYMOUS WHISPERS NOW, DONNIE BOY? WHO CARES THAT THE RAIDERS WERE THE TEAM TO SPEND THE THIRD ROUND DRAFT PICK. WHO CARES THAT I MADE MY POST BEFORE THE FIVE GAME SUSPENSION WAS ANNOUNCED. SUCK IT, BANKSY! KISS MY SWEATERVEST, BABY!!! WOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Um, on second thought, I predict that prediction columns aren't going anywhere.

Is Terrelle Pryor's Value Too Low?

I read an article on Sports Illustrated web-site that ripped Terrelle Pryor's QB abilities. Don Banks, a good writer, valued Pryor as only being worth a 5th or 6th round draft pick in the upcoming supplemental draft. I might agree with Don if Terrelle had come out for the regular NFL draft. But I think that actually, some team will bid a low 3rd round or high 4th round pick for Pryor, due to some exceptional circumstances Don may have not considered.

Leverage in dealing for Kevin Kolb. Teams like the Cardinals are desperate for a quarterback, and are forced to wait until the lockout ends to try to deal for a new quarterback. If such a team can acquire Pryor, it creates the illusion of more depth at the quarterback spot. Such a team can then claim that they can get by with a veteran retread for a few years while waiting for Pryor to develop. This forces the Eagles to lower their price. If acquiring Pryor for a 4 means that a team need only offer the Eagles two second-round draft picks instead of including a first-round draft pick, it's well-worth it.

Added buzz for ticket sales for a dull team. After the lockout ends, teams may struggle selling tickets, especially if that team already had a bad reputation. The Bills, for example, had a smart draft where they avoided taking a QB and decided to stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick for now. However, Bills fans are very impatient with the team's losing style and lack of playmakers. Or, take Cincinnati, a team that had to blackout games last year. Think that such a team won't be tempted to take Pryor to boost ticket sales and lure in a few Buckeyes fans? It will also help create more competition for Dalton at a relatively cheap price.

Added playmaker for unconventional offenses. If the Dolphins were willing to spend a second-round pick on Pat White, why not spend a fourth-round pick on Pryor? For run-first teams with immobile, strong-armed QB's, why not bring in Pryor as an additional weapon? Yes, it's not exactly clear where Pryor best fits, whether QB or wide-out. But it's clear he has above-average skills. And that's enough to intrigue talent evaluators, who foam at the mouth at transition talents like Tebow, Matt Jones, Pat White, and others. Somewhere, there's a GM or coach who thinks they can use Pryor as a secret weapon, and they'll see him as a bargain.

The deceitfulness of scarcity. Imagine you are an NFL GM. The draft is over. You can't sign any undrafted free agents. You have next to nothing to do. There is literally ONE player in all of football that you can acquire. Don't you think some bored GM is talking himself into Terrelle Pryor as we speak, cackling as he thinks he will get an edge on the rest of the league? We all become bargain hunters when we think we got the last item on the shelf. Expect that instinct to persuade at least one GM to pay big for Terrelle Pryor.